By Aisha Abdullah, Public Good News
May 12, 2025

A recent CDC study found that one in 31 children were diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder by age 8 in 2022. The study set off a wave of false and misleading claims about the so-called “autism epidemic” and vaccines. But a closer examination of the data reveals how some online abuse public health data to prop up false narratives.  

What did the CDC study find?

CDC researchers looked at ASD diagnoses among 4 and 8 year olds at 16 sites in the agency’s Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network. One in 31 children had been diagnosed with ASD by age 8, up from one in 36 in 2020. 

The researchers suggested that access to early evaluation and diagnosis resources influenced the rise in ASD diagnoses, especially in underserved populations. 

Autism rates varied widely by location, with the highest in California (one in 19) and the lowest in Laredo, Texas (one in 103). However, access to resources rather than location appears to influence how many children are diagnosed with autism. 

For example, California has robust early ASD detection and intervention programs compared to other states. Similarly, Pennsylvania, with the second-highest rates of autism (one in 21), has universal Medicaid coverage for children with physical, mental, and intellectual disabilities.

The researchers indicated that “differences in the prevalence of children identified with ASD across communities might be due to differences in availability of services for early detection and evaluation and diagnostic practices.” 

Boys and nonwhite children were more likely to be diagnosed with autism than girls and white children. Early detection improved compared to previous years, with more children in the younger group being diagnosed by age 4. 

This study and previous research note that nonwhite children are less likely to be diagnosed and are typically diagnosed with ASD later than their white peers. 

“Many families—especially those in low-income, rural, and racially or culturally diverse communities—still face delays in diagnosis, limited provider availability, and long waitlists for evaluations,” stated the Autism Society in response to the CDC study. 

“Children of color are more likely to be diagnosed only when co-occurring intellectual disabilities are present, indicating missed opportunities for earlier identification and interventions.”

The fact that more children are being diagnosed earlier, particularly those from demographics that are diagnosed later or at lower rates, means that access to diagnosis has improved. 

Taken together, the study doesn’t suggest that autism is reaching “epidemic” levels. It suggests that more children are being screened and diagnosed earlier. 

Children who likely would have gone without a diagnosis just a decade ago now have access to early interventions to improve their quality of life and outcomes. That shows progress. 

“This report is the most convincing evidence yet that changes in factors like access to services and de-stigmatization of ASD are leading to the increases in prevalence,” said Alycia Halladay, the chief science officer at the Autism Science Foundation, in a statement. 

What state vaccination rates reveal

Since the study’s publication, health officials and vaccine opponents have used it to claim that California’s high autism prevalence is linked to its high vaccination rates, while Texas’s low autism prevalence is due to the state’s less strict vaccination requirements. 

But the study—and state immunization data—contradict these claims. 

California does not have the highest childhood immunization rate in the country. It ranks ninth for measles, mumps, rubella, polio, and chickenpox vaccination, and tenth for diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccination. 

Meanwhile, Wisconsin and Minnesota, which rank in the bottom five for childhood vaccination rates, had the third (one in 26) and fourth (one in 28) highest autism rates in the study, respectively.

But Texas provides the best illustration of flawed logic. Laredo, in Webb County, has the lowest autism rate in the study. It also has some of the highest childhood vaccination rates in the state, ranking in the top 8 percent for all vaccines. In fact, Webb County’s immunization rates are higher than both the national average and California’s rate.

By contrast, Austin, in Travis County, has nearly twice the rate of autism (one in 51) of Laredo and some of the lowest vaccination rates in Texas, ranking in the bottom 11 percent for all vaccines.

Decades of research show that there is no link between autism and vaccines. The distortion of the CDC study is just the latest attempt by vaccine opponents to peddle the myth. 

Find out how to find reliable sources for health information here and here.

This article first appeared on Public Good News and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.